The Sorcerer's Guide

It’s October, which means we’re half way through the Halloween season! We want to report on the Crowd Calendar’s performance. We’ll make this a habit, so you can expect a monthly update with some statistics. This report will be about a combination of the two, but we post Disneyland and Walt Disney World calendars separately. Across Disneyland and Walt Disney World, our average error was 0.2, with a standard deviation of 1.5 points. 67% of our predictions were within 1 point, and 92% were within 2. There were only two predictions that were off by more than 3: September 10th at Disneyland was a 2, and we had predicted a 6. The lower crowds were likely because of the D23 expo. This was the day of the Disney Parks panel. So this would have been the day that the biggest park fans would be at the expo most of the day. We’ll need to take this difference into account for the next Expo. September 26th at Epcot was an 8, and we had predicted a 4. Magic Kingdom on this same day was a 7, when we p