Crowd Calendar Performance - September 2022


It’s October, which means we’re half way through the Halloween season! We want to report on the Crowd Calendar’s performance. We’ll make this a habit, so you can expect a monthly update with some statistics. This report will be about a combination of the two, but we post Disneyland and Walt Disney World calendars separately.

Across Disneyland and Walt Disney World, our average error was 0.2, with a standard deviation of 1.5 points. 67% of our predictions were within 1 point, and 92% were within 2.

There were only two predictions that were off by more than 3:
  • September 10th at Disneyland was a 2, and we had predicted a 6. The lower crowds were likely because of the D23 expo. This was the day of the Disney Parks panel. So this would have been the day that the biggest park fans would be at the expo most of the day. We’ll need to take this difference into account for the next Expo.
  • September 26th at Epcot was an 8, and we had predicted a 4. Magic Kingdom on this same day was a 7, when we predicted a 4. It’s likely that the difference here was due to guests rushing to get to Epcot and Magic Kingdom. If their time in the parks was being cut short due to Hurricane Ian, they would have been trying to get to these headliner parks to finish out their trip.
With travel back at normal levels after COVID, it’s good to see the crowds dropping off a bit with the start of a new school.

Disneyland Crowd Calendar. Crowds are rated on a scale of 1 to 10.

Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar. Crowds are rated on a scale of 1 to 10.

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